‘The Strangest Easter’: Coronavirus Maintains Its Grip as Talk of Reopening Percolates.
Officials warn any early signs of success in curbing the pandemic shouldn’t mean a quick lifting of lockdowns.
By Talal Ansari, Sadie Gurman, Courtney McBride and Jennifer Calfas | The Wall Street Journal
As social distancing requirements curbed Easter celebrations around the world, officials warned that early signs of success in slowing the spread of the new coronavirus shouldn’t mean a quick lifting of lockdown orders.
The U.S. leads the world in the number of confirmed cases, more than 550,000, and fatalities, more than 21,700, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Globally, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases topped 1.8 million on Sunday.
Under restrictions imposed to battle the pandemic, millions of Catholics and Protestants marked Easter, the holiest day on the Christian calendar, in isolation at home, in many cases watching priests or ministers on TV or over the internet.
At the Vatican, Pope Francis on Sunday proclaimed what he called a “contagion of hope” after he offered Mass in a near-empty St. Peter’s Basilica.
In the U.S., health officials and state and local political leaders expressed caution Sunday about reopening the U.S. economy by May 1, a date some Trump administration officials have posed as a possible time for easing restrictions.
The debate about when to reopen focuses on several data points officials are closely watching, including the number of new infections, death counts, the number of admissions to hospital intensive care units and the number of ICU patients being put on ventilators.
“We see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn said on ABC. “But I think it’s just too early for us to say whether May 1 is that date.”
The decision on lifting restrictions and encouraging businesses to restart rests mainly with state and local officials, but White House guidance can have a big impact. When to do so has been the subject of “vigorous debates” within the medical community and the Trump administration is taking note, Mr. Hahn said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN that some limited openings might be possible by May. “I think it could probably start, at least in some ways, maybe next month,” he said.
But Dr. Fauci added that “it’s not going to be a light switch that we say, it is now June, July, click, the light switch goes back on.” He said that “it depends where you are in the country.”
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that while hospitalizations in the state were down, 758 people died on Saturday, bringing the number of those who have succumbed to Covid-19, the respiratory disease resulting from the virus, to 9,385, the highest toll for a state.
“That’s the one number that I look forward to seeing drop as soon as I open my eyes in the morning,” Mr. Cuomo said.
Over the weekend, Mr. Cuomo said New York would look at how other countries are approaching the issue of reopening, while keeping in mind the possibility of a second wave of infections.
Whatever form reopening would take, Mr. Cuomo said decisions would follow consultation with counties within the state and neighboring states, and that coordination with Connecticut and New Jersey would be ideal.
Mr. Cuomo said New York would have difficulty reopening without federal help, as the state has spent billions on combating the pandemic.
“Without federal assistance, how does this state economy come back? How do we really start to fund schools,” he said at his daily press conference on Sunday.
Mr. Cuomo said he and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan have issued a joint statement calling for $500 billion in funding for state governments. Mr. Hogan. a Republican, and Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Governors Association.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, whose state has the second-highest number of positive cases, said his aides are consulting numerous models, some of which suggest cases have crested while others predict a peak in several weeks.
The Democratic governor said on CNN that while he would like to be able to restart the state’s economy, “I fear, if we open up too early…we could be pouring gasoline on the fire, even inadvertently.”
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said he has been speaking with economists, scientists and industry leaders on how to properly reopen businesses and have residents return to work, noting a lower death rate reported Sunday signaled that the crisis may be stabilizing in the hard-hit state. Illinois has 20,852 confirmed cases and 720 deaths. He said 43 people died in the state from Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, the lowest number in six days.
Mr. Pritzker said a return to normalcy could come as the rate of infections slowed but warned that the process would be complex.
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson hasn’t issued a stay-at-home order for state residents but has imposed some restrictions to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus. “You cannot lock down, you cannot shelter in place for six months,” the Republican said, but “if we need to do more, we will do more.”
One key to reopening will be further testing, including antibody tests that detect who has been infected and recovered, the FDA’s Mr. Hahn said. He expressed concern that some available antibody tests “haven’t gone through the FDA scientific review,” adding that “having wildly inaccurate tests” is worse than having no tests.
For New York, Gov. Cuomo signed an executive order to allow for more people to administer antibody tests. “We have to get that test to scale, and this executive order will help do that,” he said.
Another issue will be whether the disease rebounds after any midyear lull.
“I hope we don’t have a rebound,” Dr. Fauci said, “but if we do, and that certainly is a possibility, hopefully we’ll be able to respond to that rebound in a much more effective way than what we have seen now in January, March, February.”
In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson was discharged from the hospital, though he won’t immediately return to work, a spokesman said. Mr. Johnson was admitted to St. Thomas’ Hospital in London last week after failing to shake persistent symptoms of Covid-19.
In France, where a lockdown has been enforced for four weeks, health authorities said the pandemic has plateaued but warned it may take more than a month before people can gradually resume normal life. “The order of the day is not deconfinement, it’s even more strict respect for confinement measures,” France’s top health official, Jérôme Salomon, said on Saturday.
Ursula von der Leyen, who heads the executive arm of the European Union, urged Europeans not to book summer vacations while the pandemic was still spreading.
Churches held Easter services in front of few or no parishioners, though many livestreamed or televised services.
In New York City, Cardinal Timothy Dolan preached in a near-empty St. Patrick’s Cathedral, focusing on the theme of the empty tomb discovered by Jesus’ friends on Easter morning.
“We hear plenty about emptiness these days, don’t we, thanks to the dreaded pandemic,” Cardinal Dolan said. But, he concluded: “Emptiness might be a blessing, not a curse, as the God of the living fills us with light, meaning, resolve, hope and life.”
Toward the end of a service at St. Mary’s Cathedral in Sydney, Catholic Archbishop Anthony Fisher said the pandemic has “made this the strangest Easter.”
Governors around the U.S. expressed gratitude to residents who heeded social distancing measures for Easter and other recent religious holidays.
“Adapting our expressions of faith in these times is one of the most faithful acts of all,” said Illinois Gov. Pritzker.
In a recorded statement on Twitter, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards reflected on Lent, the six weeks leading up to Easter during which many Christians fast. “The Lenten season is always a time for reflection, and the past few months have challenged us in ways that none of us could have ever imagined,” he said.
Hope, and New Life, in a Brooklyn Maternity Ward Fighting Covid-19.
In a hospital at the center of the crisis, nearly 200 babies have arrived since March. Some pregnant women have fallen extremely ill, but doctors are winning battles for their lives and their children’s.
By Sheri Fink | The New York Times
The worried doctors stood together after their rounds, weighing the risks. A 31-year-old pregnant woman was in peril, her lungs ravaged by the coronavirus. If they delivered her baby now, it might reduce the strain on her body and help her recover.
But it was more than two months before the due date, and the infant would probably have difficulty breathing, feeding and maintaining temperature and be at risk for long-term health problems. The surgery itself, a cesarean section, would be a stressor for the mother.
In the end, the three obstetricians agreed: Neither the mother, on a ventilator, nor the child in her womb was getting enough oxygen, and the best chance to save both was to bring the baby into the world. Today.
“We needed to do something,” said Dr. Erroll Byer Jr., chairman of the department of obstetrics and gynecology at the Brooklyn Hospital Center, reflecting on that morning nearly two weeks ago.
The woman, Precious Anderson, was one of three critically ill expectant mothers at the same time in the community hospital, an unusual circumstance. Dr. Byer walked back and forth between the maternity floor and the intensive care unit, checking on her.
The obstetrics unit, which delivers about 2,600 babies a year, is typically a place of celebration and fulfilled hopes. But amid the pandemic, it has been transformed.
Nearly 200 babies have arrived since the beginning of March, according to Dr. Byer. Twenty-nine pregnant or delivering women have had suspected or confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. They have been kept separate from other patients, and medical workers wear protective clothing when attending to them. Hallways where women walked as they endured labor are empty, with the mothers-to-be confined to their rooms. Multiple doctors and nurses in the department have fallen ill.
Even healthy pregnant women are anxious. “They don’t feel the happiness and joy that many people experience” at this time of life, Dr. Byer said. Worse, some pregnant patients who become sick are so scared of coming into the hospital — citing fear of the virus or of being alone — that they have delayed doing so. A few of them have become dangerously ill.
As at other New York hospitals, the surge of new patients with Covid-19 flattened this past week. But the intensive care unit at the Brooklyn hospital had to keep expanding, to nearly three times its original size, and deaths remained high. Nearly 90 patients confirmed or suspected to have the virus had succumbed since March 1. From Monday to Friday last week alone, 30 died. Five staff members have also died. The crisis is not over, Dr. Byer and other physicians warned.
But he is grateful: So far, not one mother or baby has been lost. There have been no confirmed cases among newborns, though doctors are awaiting results for one, according to the chair of pediatrics, Dr. Noah Kondamudi.
Ms. Anderson’s case has been particularly harrowing. She had been a patient of Dr. Byer’s for years. He counseled her on getting pregnant after a miscarriage and delivered her sister’s children. Day after day, as she struggled for survival, he kept asking himself: Is she going to lose the baby she tried so hard to have? Will her child be left motherless?
During her ordeal, her mother, Doris Robinson, came to Dr. Byer’s office. “Do you think she’s going to make it?” she asked. “Please be real with me.”
A Doctor and His Community
When Ms. Anderson, a substitute teacher, finally got pregnant, prenatal visits became a family affair. The baby’s father, David Cirilo, who works in security, and often Ms. Anderson’s mother, joined her to watch the ultrasound examinations. The baby was due in June.
Dr. Byer was fond of his patient — “a beautiful personality,” he described her — who asked questions about her health and how she could address several issues, including obesity, that could affect her chances of getting pregnant. “She was very diligent,” he told a reporter.
On Thursday, March 26, when she was feeling sick, she called Dr. Byer. He asked her to visit the obstetrics clinic, but she said she was frightened to come to the hospital. Besides, she told him, it was probably just her asthma acting up.
A day later, she had little choice. She arrived at the hospital coughing and laboring to breathe, unable to get out a full sentence. Dr. Byer told her she probably had Covid-19 — “she was classic” — and admitted her to a special area of the labor and delivery unit, where four rooms at the end of a hallway had been designated for pregnant patients who were infected with the coronavirus or believed to be.
By the next day, the maternity team was unable to keep her oxygen levels high enough, and she was transferred to the I.C.U. “She was just getting too short of breath,” said Dr. James Gasperino, the head of critical care. Within 24 hours, she was on a ventilator.
“She tried for so many years, and now she’s finally pregnant and happy and things are going well, and it just happens that this pregnancy takes place with this epidemic,” Dr. Byer lamented. “Those are the things you have no control over.”
Dr. Byer, 51, is the son of an obstetrician-gynecologist with whom he delivered babies and operated many times, starting when he was a resident at the nearby Long Island College Hospital, where his father practiced. His mother is a nurse. One of his sisters is a midwife. His wife is a pharmacist.
He studied at Howard and Syracuse Universities and has worked at the Brooklyn Hospital Center for 20 years. He was drawn by its academic programs, he said, and because he “liked being part of the community.” Growing up, he had attended a high school for a while near Fort Greene Park, just around the corner from the hospital.
Dr. Byer wakes up at 5:30 a.m., preparing for his day dealing with the coronavirus crisis. On his iPad, he checks what has happened overnight — looking at the websites for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Johns Hopkins University and the New York Health Department to see if there are any new recommendations and assess whether the city is reaching its peak patient load.
He keeps an eye on the data. Several small studies have been published about the coronavirus in pregnancy. Babies have been found to be infected in a small minority of cases, but have generally fared well. While some hospitals separate new mothers with Covid-19 from their infants, others, including the Brooklyn Hospital Center, allow mothers to be with their newborns and nurse them — the virus is not believed to be transmitted through breast milk. They are instructed to take precautions such as wearing masks and gowns and keeping their hands clean when having contact.
Pregnant women are thought to be at a similar risk for severe illness from Covid-19 as other people. But Dr. Byer said that more research was needed, particularly in communities, like Brooklyn, where obesity, diabetes and hypertension are common among expectant mothers.
The Sound of a Heartbeat
Last Monday, three doctors in his unit were out sick. One tested negative for the virus and would be back soon.
Dr. Byer and others discussed whether they had enough staffing and supplies, particularly protective equipment. “It’s this constant feeling: Is this shipment going to be enough for the next few days?” he said. “It’s really a day-to-day thing.”
He had two operations that Monday: a planned C-section and assisting with surgery on a patient with a large mass in her abdomen. Before that he had rounds, on which all the cases in the obstetrics and gynecology service were discussed.
One of the inpatients on the maternity floor with Covid-19 was Basharrie McKenzie, who had been on a ventilator in the intensive care unit, overlapping with Ms. Anderson and a woman who was 28 weeks pregnant and later recovered without an early delivery.
Ms. McKenzie, 36, was born in Jamaica and came to the United States as a teenager. She has three children and works in medical coding at another Brooklyn hospital, where she believes she picked up the virus. At first, she thought she had a cold. Her 11-year-old daughter brought her juice made from carrots and beets to treat it.
Nearly three weeks ago, on a Tuesday, she was having trouble breathing. Like Ms. Anderson, she was prodded by her obstetrician to come to the hospital when she fell ill, about three months before her due date. The physician, Dr. Amber Ferrell, was alarmed when Ms. McKenzie called and was so short of breath she could barely speak. Dr. Ferrell alerted the intensive care team.
Ms. McKenzie was admitted to the hospital and was scared to sleep for fear of never waking up. She watched staff members go in and out of the room next door for a patient she believes died.
By that Friday, she had developed acute hypoxic respiratory failure — not enough oxygen was getting into her blood, which meant the same was true for her baby. She was put on a ventilator.
A day later, drifting in and out of consciousness, she felt certain that the medical staff was trying to kill her. In a panic, she pulled out her breathing tube. The doctors decided to see if she could maintain her breathing off the ventilator.
In Room 11 of the I.C.U. two days later, she saw a physician in a white coat, Dr. Gasperino, pass by and give her a thumbs-up. It gave her hope. She returned the gesture with two thumbs and a smile. But she was still breathing rapidly and had a tube under her nose delivering a high flow of oxygen.
“I’m a little worried,” one of the I.C.U. doctors told Dr. Gasperino when the team gathered to review patients that morning. The physicians agreed to give Ms. McKenzie another day to improve in the I.C.U.
Ms. McKenzie praised God, she later said. Her sister, a pastor in Toronto, asked for prayers to be said for her. Slowly, her condition improved. She eventually left the I.C.U., where the great majority of Covid-19 patients have not survived, and was moved to a special isolated room in the maternity ward.
Alone — no visitors were permitted except for women giving birth, who can have one — she kept herself occupied by browsing Instagram and FaceTiming with her children, including her 3-year-old, Aaliyah. It had been a tough year for the family, with four relatives dying in the previous six months.
Last Monday night, Angela Lewis, a maternity nurse who has worked at the hospital for three decades, put on an N95 mask, a blue plastic gown, gloves, bootees and a face shield to enter Ms. McKenzie’s room. She said she had received no specialized training for caring for coronavirus patients. “Years ago, we were taught how to use the P.P.E. and the hand washing and everything. Covid is the same — you have to apply it. You just be a little bit more careful,” she said. “And pray, pray.”
The nurse strapped a monitor around Ms. McKenzie’s belly. The sound of her baby’s heartbeat filled the small room.
Ms. Lewis returned 30 minutes later, put on protective gear again and checked Ms. McKenzie’s vital signs. She was breathing without assistance. Her temperature was normal. “No contractions? No cramping?” the nurse asked. She folded up the printout of the baby’s heart rate.
The next afternoon, Ms. McKenzie gathered her belongings. As she headed out of the unit to go home, one of about 80 coronavirus patients discharged last week, she caught sight of Dr. Byer and the nurses.
Keena Samuels, the charge nurse of the maternity postpartum unit, said goodbye as Ms. McKenzie wept. “You’re going to be just fine,” Ms. Samuels said. “You’re going to come back and deliver a healthy, beautiful baby.” She added, “You made it!”
‘What More Can We Do?’
In the I.C.U., Precious Anderson’s condition was tenuous.
“You’re seeing her not really getting significantly better, even though she’s intubated and ventilating, and we had to figure out what we could do,” Dr. Byer said. He conferred with two other doctors, specialists in both obstetrics and maternal-fetal medicine. Continuing her pregnancy, they concluded, could further compromise her lung function.
“I was thinking: ‘What more can we do? Is she going to see her baby?’” Dr. Byer recalled.
The I.C.U. doctors also believed that delivering the baby might improve Ms. Anderson’s condition. “My gut feeling was that she would have more of her lungs to fight with,” Dr. Gasperino said. They prescribed two doses of steroid medications, given 12 hours apart, to help reduce the risk of breathing problems in her baby.
At the I.C.U. morning report two weeks ago, a doctor presented her case: “She’s going to go for C-section.” The surgery took place around midday. Not long after she was wheeled in, Ms. Anderson became a mother. Her baby boy weighed 3.7 pounds.
A team from the neonatal intensive care unit immediately began tending to him. He could not breathe well on his own and required a ventilator.
Ms. Anderson, unconscious all the while, was taken back to the I.C.U. There was no significant improvement for days. Dr. Byer and Ms. Anderson’s family were deeply worried.
“Because Covid is such a new and novel virus,” the doctor said, there is no way to know what the outcome will be in an individual patient, “even though you’ve tried everything you possibly could.”
The I.C.U. staff received special approval to try the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir with Ms. Anderson, according to Dr. Gasperino. In a study of 58 severely ill patients published last week in The New England Journal of Medicine, the majority of those given the drug showed improvements, but there was no comparison group, so the significance was unclear.
Last Monday afternoon, Dr. Byer went to see his patient in the I.C.U. “How’s Ms. Anderson doing?” he asked one of the critical care doctors.
She no longer needed the ventilator, which had just been removed, he was told. “Very nice!,” the obstetrician responded. “Very, very nice.”
When he stood outside Ms. Anderson’s room, she opened her eyes and patted her belly, as if she thought she was still pregnant. He gave the still-groggy patient a wave.
He called her mother, Doris Robinson, to report the good news. “She knows she had a baby, right?” Ms. Robinson asked.
Two days later, Ms. Anderson would tell Dr. Byer her baby’s name: David III, after his father. On a tablet, Dr. Byer connected her from the I.C.U. by video to the neonatal intensive care unit. The infant’s condition had been improving.
“Oh!” Ms. Anderson said. “He’s asleep.”
“He’s taking the bottle well, sucking well,” Mary Godineaux, the senior director of nursing for maternal-child health, said from the baby’s bedside. “He’s so handsome, Precious.”
Ms. Anderson asked when he could go home, and Dr. Byer said he had to gain weight.
Looking at her son, the new mother smiled and cried at the same time. “Hey,” she said. The child opened his eyes and wriggled. “There you go. Hi.”
What Will America’s Housing Market Look Like After The Coronavirus Pandemic Ends? Here’s What 5 Top Producing Real Estate Agents Had To Say.
Peter Lane Taylor | Forbes
It’s never easy to buy or sell a home—even in the best market conditions. During the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s become nearly impossible.
I know this firsthand. My wife and I listed our house for sale in late February, shortly before Washington state reported its first Covid-19 related deaths. We went under contract in less than 24 hours. Full ask. 30 day close. Everything was going exactly accordingly to plan.
Until the Dow crashed and it all fell apart.
Our story isn’t unique in the new corona normal. The U.S. housing industry is on lockdown. New construction sales centers are empty. In most states real estate agents can't show houses. Inspectors won’t inspect. Appraisers can’t appraise. Even cash buyers willing to waive contingencies can't get an appointment. Closings for homes that went under contract before America put its economy on ice—if they happen at all—are now done virtually via Zoom, Docusign, and drive-through title companies in order to comply with stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines.
Real estate’s clobbering runs wide and deep. Hospitality, including hotels, restaurants, and bars, took the first body blow in early March, shut down by Gubernatoruial fiat beginning with California before spreading to states east. Malls, shopping centers, and sporting and entertainment venues locked down next, emptying almost every physical location where people densely gather nationwide.
Short-term vacation and AirBnB rentals, which briefly saw a reservation surge in popular tourist destinations and remote rural communities from people looking to flee dense urban hotspots like New York City, were promptly banned by many local city councils fearful that their limited healthcare infrastructure and off-season supply chains would be overwhelmed by outsiders. Year over year short-term rental reservations for 2020 summer travel are now down by 75%. Hosts, many of whom rely on their short-term rentals for critical supplemental income or, in many cases, all of it, now credit Covid-19 for the “Cancellation Apocalypse”.
The effects of real estate’s upending further downstream have been equally swift. Many building supply wholesalers and hardware stores are shuttered, as are the majority of building materials factories and manufacturing plants across the country that keep them stocked due to quarantines and curfews for the workers who staff them. In some cities like Philadelphia, residential and commercial construction sites have been shut down altogether, except for critical need projects like hospitals and prisons.
Think about that for a second: In America’s fifth most populous city, where construction and housing have been booming after decades of stagnating development, swinging a hammer is technically, temporarily illegal.
Uncertainty is now housing’s greatest future risk. No one knows how persistent the coronavirus will be, how long America’s economy will remain locked down, or what the lasting social and emotional toll on how we live, work, and interact with one another will be. Humans, however, are innately collective creatures. More critically, our economy is innately based on the act of congregating. When the state and local lockdowns lift and America’s consumer economy reignites, most restaurants, bars, and retail stores will likely experience more pent-up demand than they can handle after months of national isolation.
But what about housing?
Every economic crisis is innately Darwinian, producing winners and losers while shifting the natural balance of power. So what will real estate post-Covid-19 look like when the American economy re-opens? What will the lingering impacts of trillions of paper money lost, long-term unemployment, and fears that the coronavirus could re-emerge in six months be? And how will the essential emotional calculus of buyers and sellers be fundamentally re-aligned in the future by the new post-corona normal?
There are no simple answers. Opinions and models run rampant on how fast the economy will re-boot. Few economists believe that we’re in for the brutal elongated “U” that America experienced through the Great Recession. Most predict a more rapid corona “V”, especially for manufacturing and retail, pointing to the speed with which businesses and factories have re-opened in China and South Korea.
Buying a house, however, isn’t the same as turning the Frappuccino machines back on, or pulling the trigger on a bigger flat-screen TV in case we’re locked down again. Housing is an emotional, big ticket game, inextricably linked to macro-level downwind pressures on employment, wages, job mobility, the stock market, and ultimately, consumer confidence—whose quick resuscitations are still far from certain.
To get the most up-to-date intelligence on the present and future state of the housing market I asked a five of America’s top agents what’s happening on the frontlines.
Uniformly, every realtor in America right now seems to agree on one thing: the industry’s “non-essential” status in many states and cities is crushing the market—exactly when the spring selling season should be opening the flood gates.
For many real estate brokers, it’s hard not to whiff some political favoritism here. Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf put bike repair shops on his “life-sustaining” business list—as well as his own kitchen cabinet supply company—but placed realtors on lockdown. In Massachusetts, wood chippers still grind away since someone effectively lobbied Governor Charlie Baker’s office to make landscapers essential, while real estate agents sit idly at home.
Real estate’s non-vital status hasn’t gone over without a fight—as well as hours of internal debate at the highest levels of America’s largest brokerages like Compass and Berkshire Hathaway.
“Last Friday, the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) filed an amicus brief supporting a lawsuit filed against Governor Tom Wolf,” explains Kristin McFeely, owner of Compass’s founding Philadelphia brokerage. “The lawsuit specifically requests that the Governor designate real estate services as a life-sustaining business, contending that the three essentials to life are food, clothing and shelter. The basic premise is that the Governor is preventing Pennsylvanians’ ability to gain shelter.”
McFeely, however, is also quick to acknowledge the more complicated moral and public health questions the lawsuit raises. Bringing a potential buyer into a stranger’s home right now undermines the essential premise of social distancing and minimizing the unanticipated interpersonal contact that could accelerate coronavirus’s community spread in the very places Americans have been instructed to self-isolate—at home.
“I honestly have mixed feelings about it,” says McFeely. “While I can’t think of a time when people around the world have depended on their homes more completely than they do right now, I also have an obligation to my community to stay home and to keep my agents at home to flatten the curve. I think ultimately that we need to move the real estate industry forward in the coming weeks and months in a way that protects both the community and those involved in providing and receiving real estate services. And there’s no easy answer to that yet.”
Notwithstanding real estate’s “non-essential” status in many states, homes are still moving, even those with outsized price tags. Agents on their toes with willing buyers are adapting rapidly. And motivated sellers are still closing deals.
“The Covid-19 pandemic is really teaching us how we need to adjust and learn new ways to transact in this business,” Peggy Olin, President and CEO of Miami’s OneWorld Properties tells me. Olin is one of South Florida’s elite luxury agents catering to foreign and out-of-state buyers. “Transitioning into the digital and virtual world is more important now than ever. Currently, because of the state of the market, agents need to be more creative than they’ve ever been to have their listings stay relevant. Many are scrambling to have more of a virtual presence, from doing 3D tours, virtual presentations to agents going by themselves into a property, and having video previews of their listings. I’ve even heard that some banks are doing drive-by appraisals with properties that are already under contract and relying on virtual tours and images that already exist for the property to get to the settlement table.”
Real estate’s new virtual reality may well have long-lasting impact. Maetterport cameras, which build virtual 3D tours using the company’s proprietary optical technology and software—long considered a luxury—have become worth their weight in gold almost overnight. Aspen, Colorado’s leading luxury agent, Carrie Wells from Coldwell Banker Mason & Morse, invested in one four years ago to market her listings to foreign and out-of-state clients who make up the majority of Aspen’s high-end buyers. It’s now her most important marketing tool.
“There’s no question that virtual tours are a very effective way to help buyers experience a property,” says Wells. “I invested in a Matterport camera four years ago and have been marketing properties with virtual tours since then. Yet now it is super important to have this technology. I am also using FaceTime to help buyers walk through a property. Virtual open houses that are broadcast on Facebook, Instagram and websites are another new tool to expose a listing to everyone without a potential buyer even needing to be in the area.”
Not every agent, however, is sold on the Amazon-ization of real estate. Buying a home isn’t like buying dog food online, says Billy Rose, Founder and President of luxury brokerage The Agency based in Beverly Hills.
“While there is definitely a material increase in virtual and FaceTime tours, our housing stock in LA is incredibly diverse, and it’s extremely difficult if not impossible to truly get a sense of a property without actually being there. How good is the quality of light? How high are the ceilings? How noisy are the surroundings? How representative are the pictures of the actual view? We’ve all seen pictures taken from a certain angle making a lawn look like a football field. Some sellers may be willing to take a ‘flyer’ on a buyer who hasn’t actually seen the property in person. But unless the price is an undeniable bargain, most buyers will insist on visiting the property before they close.”
In hot spot cities like New York, where the corona pandemic first exploded and has continued to wreak daily mayhem on every business and industry, agents have been forced to be even more agile, while simultaneously ensuring the safety of their clients and their families.
“I can’t speak to the real estate market across the nation,” says Louise Phillips Forbes, Halstead’s top producing Manhattan agent and one of New York City’s leading power brokers among developers. “But for New York City we were on fire until last month. For the eight plus deals I navigated under contract, every one of them had more than one offer and in two cases four to five. So we’ve been forced to adapt from the ‘Old School Paper Shuffling Mentality’ to innovation and streamlining everything. On March 20th (New York) Governor Cuomo issued an Executive Order allowing ‘Virtual Notarization’. This gave us the ability to get a $19 million deal done 100% in absentia recently. Crisis teaches us to be resilient, creative and gritty. Where there is a will there is a way to get any deal done. Closings are still happening. Banks have learned to support and accept “desktop” appraisals, coop boards are facilitating interviews through Zoom and Skype. We had one deal close recently where there were four cars in a parking lot representing the bank’s attorney, the seller’s attorney, the buyer attorney’s, and the title company ‘masked and gloved’ running back and forth getting signatures. That brings me hope that we can get through this.”
Given the cliff fall in showings and closings since the coronavirus outbreak, it might be easy to think that America’s real estate industry has shifted from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Not so fast, says Olin.
“Real Estate is still a long-term investment, not a short term one,” she tells me. “There are many buyers that even now are suddenly empty nesters or need to downsize or the opposite—get into a larger home because they have a growing a family. Whichever the case, many buyers have to continue moving forward with transactions. Real estate is still a hot market.”
The Agency’s Rose agrees, remaining bullish that housing’s underlying fundamentals haven’t changed since the Covid-19 pandemic began.
“Volatility and uncertainty always paralyze financial and real estate markets,” says Rose, “But people who were going to buy or sell 2-3 months ago have merely shifted their timing down the line. There may be some buyers who now can’t afford what they wanted. And there may be some sellers who will hold off selling until they perceive the market to be at a point they view as more favorable to them. But there are certain life events—like death, birth, marriage, divorce, and downsizing—which necessitate home sales. The real estate market may not fly quite as high for a while. But there will always be transactions.”
Halstead’s Phillips Forbes sees a similarly emotional instinct in her clients who are still looking to buy.
“My best advice is to have a voice with your clients, be opinionated, and don’t be afraid to remind them to quiet the noise of the news and to look within to know what’s right for you and your family. Owning a home has been part of the American Dream since WWII. Real estate for most people is still the most important decision most people will ever make.”
On the selling side, most agents I spoke with aren’t holding their clients back either, especially since so many potential buyers are stuck at home spending hours searching for homes online.
“Pricing is the most important thing that a seller can focus on right now if they need to sell,” Mason & Morse’s Wells advises. “Aspen’s market has a seasonality component to it since we are a resort community which makes us unique. But across the board there are many buyers right now looking for a deal so positioning a property at the right price point is critical if someone needs to sell.”
Billy Rose isn’t advising his sellers to sit on the sidelines either.
“If you’re selling, get your property on the market,” he advises. “Don’t wait until ‘better times’. We don’t know when that will be, and most MLSs are pausing the Days On Market counter at the moment so sellers aren’t prejudiced in this regard. Also, don’t price based off the ‘outlier’ or premium comp. You need to create urgency by pricing ahead of the market. If you are new to the market, then you want your price to be compelling. If you are already on the market, then you don’t want your reduction to be a non-needle mover; you don’t want to be the tree that falls in the forest that no one hears. Sellers also need to be mindful that now is not the time to be trying to drive a hard bargain. Don’t scare buyers off. Be accommodating if you want to sell.”
For Olin in South Florida, keeping properties moving isn’t just about pricing strategy. She’s adamant that her agents focus their attention on their marketing strategies as well as the details of their clients’ homes.
“This is the time to really do your market research,” says Olin. “With so much information available for clients at their fingertips, now is the time to understand the value and inventory of the homes that buyers want to be in. Engage in conversations with other agents, see what they are doing right now to promote their listings, and see how they can help you moving forward. Advise your clients to go through their home and declutter and be prepared and ready for when we see the pandemic end. Most of all be realistic. Don't overprice your home in this market, especially if you need to move it.”
While the broad consensus was that the residential housing market will quickly re-set, every agent I spoke with agreed that real estate fundamentally will never quite be the same again. Economic crises have long-lasting effects on people’s psyches and decision-making as well as their pocketbooks. Covid-19’s long-term re-ordering will take months, if not years, to shake out. What the new normal looks like is anyone’s guess.
“While this is a particularly stressful time, I’m seeing people connecting with their friends and family on a deeper and more ‘present’ level,” says Rose. “I’m hopeful that, once we are all freed from our homes, we will all be grateful of our lives and the simple things that truly give it substance. I believe that there will be a consciousness towards more simplicity, so the trend may well be away from the ‘bigger is better’ mentality which has taken over many markets. And, since many of us have retreated away to remote and isolated locations, I think that people will have a thirst to be with people as opposed to getting away from them. As a result, I believe that the second and third home markets will be slower in re-gaining momentum.”
Mason & Morse’s Wells predicts a similar shift in buyer’s priorities about where and how they want to live, in Aspen and beyond.
“Every luxury market was seeing a huge uptick in the first quarter of this year until early to mid-March, trending with the stock market,” say Wells. “Now the desire to own property in places with a healthy lifestyle has been heightened. We are also all experiencing shifts in how we do business and even though we are all craving more interaction right now, we are also all witnessing a more efficient way to do things like working from home or remotely. I think many people will decide they don’t need to commute as much or live in a dense urban setting.”
The post-Covid re-ordering will almost certainly have unexpected upstream effects as well, including how architects envision the new definition of “home” after months of people sheltering in place. This will take the form of more touchless technology in high-rise buildings, an increased use of remotely accessible technology like locks and thermostats, and home designs built for #WFH (work from home).
“Now that America has gotten a crash course in working from home, it will become much more of our everyday lives I think,” predicts Rose. “I’m betting that home offices which are fitted out for a digital work existence will become the newest ‘must have’ amenity. Imagine ‘his and her’ home offices built ready for the now ubiquitous Zoom conference, replete with green screen for your virtual background of choice.”
Compass’s McFeely sees Covis-19’s lasting impacts as more profound beyond just technology, or where and why people buy.
“In terms of social and cultural shifts, I think that people are truly recognizing the value of home and it’s never been more apparent how much our homes matter,” McFeely tells me. “I think the weeks and months we’re spending inside are going to forever change our ideas of home. Home is where we are eating, sleeping, playing, working and homeschooling right now. Those who will continue to work from home may be more in tuned to work and home office spaces. Outdoor spaces, patios, and decks may seem like a necessity now. And I think safety and a sense of community are going to become more important.”
As for the future of housing, no agent’s a prophet. But everyone I spoke with is sanguine and already preparing for a delayed spring selling season—all of which should keep buyers and sellers optimistic.
“This is not 2008,” says Olin. “We are in unchartered territory with the coronavirus. But the Federal Reserve is taking incredible steps to preserve our economy. This is more like the market after September 11th. It was unexpected. It came on quickly. It scared us. And people just froze. The same thing is happening right now. The corona pandemic came on equally as unexpected, stopping the economy and creating similar attributes. During that recession the value of real estate went up. I don’t think this is any different. I don't think we will have a lot of activity over the next few months. But once we are out of this, it all picks up fairly quickly and by the end of the year I believe we are back to normal.”
Halstead’s Phillips Forbes is even more bullish on housing market post-corona, even in hardest-hit New York.
“I am poising myself and team to hit the ground running,” Phillips Forbes tells me. “We are pre-booking photographers, videographers, and floorplan vendors to continue moving forward as soon as the lockdown is lifted. New York real estate has been in a ‘correction mode’ for four years. It’s still an opportunistic moment for people to upgrade. History has taught us that New York real estate has led us through darker days of economic recovery including something as paralyzing as 9/11. With every transaction, real estate in America touches 13 jobs. That’s why it represents 5% of GDP. That’s why it will survive.”
Amen to that.
China was 'not truthful' about initial coronavirus outbreak, ex-FDA boss Gottlieb says.
Frank Miles | Fox News
Former Food and Drug Administration FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Sunday he believes China was "not truthful" about the initial outbreak of the coronavirus.
"Had they been more truthful with the world, which would have enabled them to be more truthful with themselves, they might have actually been able to contain this entirely," he told CBS News' "Face the Nation." "There is some growing evidence to suggest that as late as January 20, they were still saying that there was no human-to-human transmission and the [World Health Organization] is validating those claims on January 14, sort of enabling the obfuscation from China."
Gottlieb, a physician and former conservative pundit, added, "Going forward, the WHO needs to commit to an after-action report that specifically examines what China did or didn't tell the world and how that stymied the global response to this."
On New Year's Eve, China informed the WHO of a "mysterious pneumonia outbreak" spreading through Wuhan, an industrial city of 11 million.
The government closed a seafood market at the center of the outbreak, moved all patients with the virus to a specially designated hospital and collected test samples to send to government laboratories. Doctors were told to stay quiet; one who issued a warning online was punished. He later died of the virus.
Gottlieb said it's too soon for America to return to the old normal.
"We're not going to have the testing in place. We're not going to have the public health employees hired to do the effective contact tracing," he said.
"Contact tracing is sort of the bread and butter of public health work," he added. "We do this when we have outbreaks of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis or measles, where when you identify people who have an infection, you want to identify people who they were in contact with, isolate them and get them tested as well. That's how you can control outbreaks."
He said responsibility rested on states doing more for its people. "The feds are going to have a hard time pulsing their resources in the throes of this crisis. So, I think it's going to be up to the states, and a lot of it's going to be on the governors."
Gottlieb stepped down in March 2019 after nearly two years leading the agency's response to a host of public health challenges, including the opioid epidemic, rising drug prices and underage vaping.
He served in the FDA under former President George W. Bush and then spent nearly a decade as a conservative commentator at the American Enterprise Institute, while also working as a venture capitalist and industry consultant.
What happens with 2021 draft, if there's no 2020 season?
By Mike Florio | NBC Sports
No one wants to think about the possibility that the NFL won’t be able to play in 2020, but if the virus controls the calendar in a way that prevents pro football from happening, one question will be the proper order for the 2021 selection process.
It’s way down the road, to be sure. But it’s impossible to rule it out at this point, because it’s impossible to rule out anything until a vaccine and/or quick are effective treatment are developed to eradicate the coronavirus.
And so if the NFL eventually has to construct a draft order without a season preceding it, the NFL could (as suggested by Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press) look to the precedent created by the NHL in 2005, after a lockout wiped out a season.
That year, the prize was Sidney Crosby — and hockey came up with a three-tiered lottery to determine who would get dibs on him. Three balls, two balls, or one ball were handed out to all teams based on performance in the three prior seasons. Teams who hadn’t been to the playoffs at all and hadn’t had the No. 1 overall pick in any of the four prior drafts received three balls. Teams with only one playoff appearance or one No. 1 pick received two. Everyone else got one.
“Half the league probably wanted everybody to have an equal chance, and the other half wanted all the teams that didn’t make the playoffs to have the only chances, weighted or unweighted,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said at the time, via Birkett. “And if you look at the statistical odds of both scenarios, what we did is about in the middle. And so actually nobody was particularly thrilled, but everybody understood that on balance it was probably the fairest way to approach it.”
The NFL has resisted generally the concept of a draft lottery, possibly to avoid shining a light on the obvious connection between losing in a lost season and winning better status in the draft. A lottery for 2021 likely would generate intense interest, showing the league that it could join the Scouting Combine, free agency, the schedule release, and the draft as key moments in the non-playing season.
Whatever the process would be, the league would have to come up with something in order to fairly determine who picks when in the 2021 draft, if there’s no 2020 NFL season. Whatever the order, the 2021 draft would be even more of a crapshoot, if there’s no 2020 NFL season.
If there’s no 2020 NFL season, there will be no 2020 college football season. Which will force teams to make decisions about prospects who hadn’t played or practiced football in nearly a year and a half.
The NBA H-O-R-S-E Challenge kicks off tonight.
By Noah Magaro George | SB Nation
The NBA H-O-R-S-E Challenge premieres tonight at 7 ET on ESPN. This special social distancing-proof tournament will feature current and former NBA and WNBA players as they go head-to-head from the safety of their in-home gymnasiums.
The league has tried to integrate H-O-R-S-E into their All-Star Weekend festivities a few times over the years, but a lack of excitement surrounding the contest phased it out of their plans. Not even a tightly contested matchup between superstars Pete Maravich and George Gervin in 1978 could save the competition from its inevitable eradication.
Despite the lack of success for the classic hoops game on the big stage, basketball fans everywhere are sure to tune in for the first live nationally televised sporting event in over a month. And considering sharpshooters like Trae Young, Allie Quigley, and Paul Pierce headline the starstudded list of participants, this won’t be a match you’ll want to miss.
NBA H-O-R-S-E Challenge Schedule
• Participants: Trae Young, Mike Conley, Chris Paul, Zach LaVine, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Allie Quigley, Tamika Catchings.
Opening Round (Quarterfinals)
• When: Sunday, April 12, 6:00 PM CT
• Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Semifinals/Championship
• When: Thursday, April 16, 8:00 PM CT
• Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
What If Jeff Bezos Tries to Acquire the Struggling U.S. Postal Service?
The U.S. Postal Service appears to be on its last legs, which means power-hungry CEOs like Jeff Bezos could swoop in a acquire them. What would it mean for us if Amazon purchased the struggling service?
Aaron Weaver | CCN
• Some people think that the U.S. Postal Service won’t survive the coronavirus pandemic.
• While they’re in such a vulnerable place, opportunistic CEOs like Jeff Bezos could try to acquire them.
• What would that mean for the USPS and us?
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has been in crisis mode for decades. Many news outlets seem to think that the coronavirus will be the death knell that puts them under.
Meanwhile, the tech world’s meanest billionaire, Jeff Bezos, is continually plotting ways to lord over the world. If he were to acquire the USPS, what would that mean for the rest of us?
Acquiring The U.S. Postal Service Would Get Jeff Bezos Closer To Total Domination
Jeff Bezos bought Whole Foods when he was already one of the wealthiest people in the world. He’s also acquired Twitch, Audible, IMDb, Ring, and The Washington Post, among 100+ others.
He’s no longer playing for success; he’s playing for total domination. And who else is left to compete with him? The biggest companies on Earth. Amazon has already passed Wal-Mart as the world’s largest retailer. But, again, Jeff Bezos wants to dominate, and Wal-Mart is still hanging tough.
Wal-Mart has already been rumored as a possible replacement if the U.S. Postal Service were to fold. Jeff Bezos could strike a blow to two competitors at once with a USPS acquisition. Sure, Amazon already uses the U.S. Postal Service for cheap delivery of their packages. But the only thing better than a competitor you can exploit is no competition at all.
What Would It Mean If Amazon Acquired The USPS?
Life would get more expensive. The U.S. Postal Service is still, by far, the cheapest option for shipping. The heavier the packages get, the closer rates become. But for most packages, the USPS can charge as little as a third of what competitors like FedEx and UPS charge.
How is that possible? Because they’re a service. They’re not built for profit, as they’ve clearly shown. But if a money-hungry tycoon like Jeff Bezos were at the helm, he would surely find a way to increase profit margins. In many cases, he could double the rates still be cheaper than the competition.
Who knows how much more it would cost to send a letter if Amazon owned the USPS. Maybe the only sensible move for most Americans would be to sign up for Amazon Prime, which would increase Bezos’ net worth to entirely new heights, and spread his monopoly even further.
An Amazon Acquisition Would Be Bad News For Over Half A Million Postal Workers
Postal workers have long worked under strenuous conditions to keep our country’s communication humming. If the USPS collapses, then most workers will lose their pensions.
But with Jeff Bezos at the helm, don’t be surprised if he treats them as poorly as all other Amazon employees.
Bezos was quick to cut employee benefits once he took over Whole Foods. The treatment of Amazon employees has been well-documented. How would he take advantage of the 600,00+ postal workers who already feel like they’re getting the short end of the stick?
'Saturday Night Live' Returns With Tom Hanks as Host
Entirely recorded from home.
By Jeff Yeung | Hypebeast
After a month-long hiatus due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic,Saturday Night Live made its return last night with one very surprising guest as host: Tom Hanks.
Hanks his wife Rita Wilson have previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 while he was filming for a new movie in Australia. After being hospitalized for a short period, the two returned home and have since recovered from the virus. As he points out during his opening monologue, he agreed to do the episode since he is one of the most prominent American actors to be diagnosed with COVID-19. He also reassures his fans that his shaved head is just a look for the movie he’s currently filming. “It’s good to be here, but it’s also weird to be here hosting ‘Saturday Night Live’ from home,” Hanks said. “It is a strange time to try and be funny, but trying to be funny is ‘SNL’s’ whole thing, so what the heck, let’s give it a shot.”
Aside from his monologue, the episode also featured Cold Play’s Chris Martin as musical guest, as well as various sketches recorded by theSNL cast entirely from home.
For Tom Hanks’ full monologue, check out the video above.
Apple and Google partner on COVID-19 contact tracing technology.
Apple
Across the world, governments and health authorities are working together to find solutions to the COVID-19 pandemic, to protect people and get society back up and running. Software developers are contributing by crafting technical tools to help combat the virus and save lives. In this spirit of collaboration, Google and Apple are announcing a joint effort to enable the use of Bluetooth technology to help governments and health agencies reduce the spread of the virus, with user privacy and security central to the design.
Since COVID-19 can be transmitted through close proximity to affected individuals, public health officials have identified contact tracing as a valuable tool to help contain its spread. A number of leading public health authorities, universities, and NGOs around the world have been doing important work to develop opt-in contact tracing technology. To further this cause, Apple and Google will be launching a comprehensive solution that includes application programming interfaces (APIs) and operating system-level technology to assist in enabling contact tracing. Given the urgent need, the plan is to implement this solution in two steps while maintaining strong protections around user privacy.
First, in May, both companies will release APIs that enable interoperability between Android and iOS devices using apps from public health authorities. These official apps will be available for users to download via their respective app stores.
Second, in the coming months, Apple and Google will work to enable a broader Bluetooth-based contact tracing platform by building this functionality into the underlying platforms. This is a more robust solution than an API and would allow more individuals to participate, if they choose to opt in, as well as enable interaction with a broader ecosystem of apps and government health authorities. Privacy, transparency, and consent are of utmost importance in this effort, and we look forward to building this functionality in consultation with interested stakeholders. We will openly publish information about our work for others to analyze.
All of us at Apple and Google believe there has never been a more important moment to work together to solve one of the world’s most pressing problems. Through close cooperation and collaboration with developers, governments and public health providers, we hope to harness the power of technology to help countries around the world slow the spread of COVID-19 and accelerate the return of everyday life.
As part of this partnership, Google and Apple are releasing draft technical documentation including Bluetooth and cryptography specifications and framework documentation.
